Nuclear Iran is past its point-of-no-return, yet oil sanctions remain on paper

From DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 21, 2012 – 

US Gen. Martin Dempsey received by Binyamin Netanyahu with friendly discord

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu advised visiting Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey Friday, Jan.20 that the time for action against Iran was now, for two reasons: First, the conviction that Iran has passed the point of no return for developing a nuclear weapon; and second, the diminishing prospects for a US-led embargo on Iranian oil to catch on before it is too late.

The Obama administration disputes the Israeli prime minister on both points, insisting there is still time for tough sanctions to incapacitate the Iranian economy and stop Tehran before it reaches the point of no return in its drive for a nuke. Israel insists that this pivotal point was reached four years ago in 2008.

Gen. Dempsey was exhaustively briefed on the Israeli position during his whirlwind interviews Friday with President Shimon Peres, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and three conversations with Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz, one with key General Staff officers.

It was not by chance that Maj. Gen. (ret.) Asher Yadlin, until last year Israel chief of military intelligence, maintained in a detailed article in the Tel Aviv daily Maariv: “If Iranian leaders were to convene tonight and decide to go ahead with the secret production of a nuclear bomb, they already possess the resources and components for doing so. This [capability] was once defined as the point of no return. [As matters stand] now, Iran’s nuclear timeline no longer hinges on the calendar; it rests entirely on a decision in Tehran.”
The former intelligence chief was saying that for four years, the US and Israeli governments colluded in propagating the false assumption that Iran had not reached a nuclear weapon capability. Presenting a highly problematic oil embargo in 2012 as capable of putting Iran off its nuclear stride is equally illusory.

Yadlin’s disclosure provided backing for Netanyahu who Thursday, Jan. 19, at the end of a visit to Holland, asserted for the first time: “Iran has decided to become a nuclear state” and called for “action now to stop Iran before it’s too late.”
Some of Israel’s cabinet ministers tried to soften the impact of the prime minister’s words by suggesting that his bluntness aimed at pushing President Barack Obama into implementing the sanctions he signed into law on Dec. 30 targeting Iran’s central bank and oil sales, and giving him an extra lever for bringing the European Union and Asian powers aboard.
But Netanyahu soon put them right. According to debkafile’s Jerusalem sources, he lined them all up to inform Gen. Dempsey – and through him President Obama – that they did not believe in those sanctions and suspected the Obama administration of orchestrating their buildup as a tool for holding Israel back from a unilateral strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

debkafile’s oil sources in Asia and Europe report that updated figures confirm how little traction the oil embargo campaign has achieved so far:
There is no evidence that China, Japan, South Korea, India, Turkey and the European Union members, which purchase in total 85 percent of Iran’s total average export of 2.5 million barrels a day, have cancelled any part of their orders.

While China – which in 2011 bought from Iran 550,000 barrels a day, covering 11 percent of its oil – cut its orders down in January by 285,000, this had nothing to do with ab embargo. Beijing was simply exploiting the threat of an embargo to squeeze from Iran a discount on prices and reduction of its debt for previous purchases. China made it clear to the Security Council that is opposed to “sanctions, pressure and military threats” against Iran. After settling its price dispute with Tehran, China fully intends to return to its former level of trade, even if it decides to partially diversify its oil sources to Saudi Arabia following Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s Middle East trip this month.

The European Union, which buys some 450,000 barrels per day from Iran, holds a special meeting Monday, Jan. 23, after failing last week to approve a cutback on purchases from Iran. Iran provides Greece, Italy and Spain respectively with about 25 percent, 13 percent and 10 percent of their oil. They are holding out for a very partial embargo and want it delayed until the end of 2012.
Japan, while pledging publicly to keep reducing its purchases of Iranian crude by 100,000 barrels a day, is waiting to see whether China and India join the ban. “The United States should try and talk more with India and China as they are the biggest buyers of Iranian crude,” said Japan’s foreign minister Koichiro Gemba this week, clearly passing the buck.

South Korea is only willing to forgo 40,000 bpd, but is asking for a waiver.

India’s Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai said this week that India, which as Iran’s second biggest buyer after China relies on Iran for 12 percent of its imports (3,500,000-4,000,000 bpd), will continue to trade with Tehran and not abide by sanctions.

In anticipation of a US-led ban on Iran’s central bank, Delhi announced this week that the CBI would open an account with an Indian bank for receiving payment for its oil, partly in Indian rupees instead of US dollars.
Turkey, keen to position itself as broker between the West and Tehran and the venue for future nuclear negotiations, is maintaining its import level of 200,000 bpd of crude from Iran.

Given the snaillike progress of the international oil sanctions campaign against Iran, the Israeli Prime Minister informed Gen. Dempsey Friday that he could not see his way to giving the Obama administration more time for these penalties to work. He stressed that the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program had reached the critical point where time was of the essence for preempting a nuclear-armed Iran.

7 responses

  1. The majority of MSM (Mainstream Media) articles in Amerika dealing with this red herring issue automatically presume the following:

    1) Iran is planning to build nuclear weapons.
    2) Iran has the requisite 90% enriched uranium to build nuclear weapons.
    3) If successful, Iran would attack Israel with said nuclear weapons.

    Let’s deal with each one individually.

    1) IF…if Iran is NOT planning to build nuclear weapons, they are the greatest pascifists since Ghandi of India considering the warmongering threats and rhetoric from Israel and/or the U.S. for the last couple of decades…ever since the U.S.-installed butcher, the Shah of Iran, was overthrown.

    However, there is still NO PHYSICAL EVIDENCE that Iran is working on nuclear weapons to date. U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta stated as much as recently as January 8, 2012. See…

    2) There is NO PHYSICAL EVIDENCE that Iran has weapons-grade uranium. As USA Today reported on 1/8/12…

    “The country (Iran) has been enriching uranium to less than 5 percent for years, but it began to further enrich part of its uranium stockpile to nearly 20 percent as of February 2010, saying it needs the higher grade material to produce fuel for a Tehran reactor that makes medical radioisotopes for cancer patients. Weapons-grade uranium is usually about 90 percent enriched.”

    3) Iran’s President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, never said that “Israel should be wiped off the map”.

    See this article from an author fluent in the Farsi dialect…”Israel: “Wiped off The Map”. The Rumor of the Century, Fabricated by the US Media to Justify An All out War on Iran”

    In conjunction with all of the above, if Iran has not attacked another country in over 300 years, a claim that the U.S. and Israel cannot make; if Iran is a signatory to the NPT (Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty), is in full compliance with same, and allows regular inspections by the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Association); if Israel possesses between 200-300 nuclear weapons, is NOT a signatory to the NPT, and will not allow any 3rd-party inspections of its nuclear facilities…

    Then what is the agenda? And whose agenda is it?

    Before you start sending your children and/or grandchildren to the Middle East to die for Israel, centuries-old feuds, and oil…you might want to answer these questions rather than taking what the Jewish-owned U.S. MSM tells you as unquestionable fact.

    “All of them are looking ahead to war. Not the people–not those who fight and pay and die–only those who foment wars and remain safely at home to profit.”

    – Major General Smedley Butler, USMC, two-time recipient Congressional Medal of Honor

  2. Start learning International Politics … that is what this piece is about! The US only has so much time and no control over Israel because they do not trust Obama at all. The embargo is not working without support of the other players, and Israel is not playing!

    1. “International Politics” is a farce. It is a high-stakes international poker game played by corrupt politicans, idiotic bureaucrats, and back-stabbing intelligence operatives who all have their own nationalistic agendas. This was recently proven to be true by the embarassing Wikileaks exposures in which red-faced U.S. diplomats now seek to hang the heroic messenger, U.S. Army PFC Bradley Manning.

      Start learning real “History”…

      “The Kellogg–Briand Pact (also called the General Treaty for the Renunciation of War or the World Peace Act) was an agreement signed on August 27, 1928, by the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Japan, Weimar Germany and a number of other countries.

      The pact renounced war (very intentionally renouncing not ‘aggressive war’ but all war), prohibiting the use of war as ‘an instrument of national policy’.[1] It made no provisions for sanctions. The pact was the result of a determined American effort to avoid involvement in the European alliance system. It was registered in League of Nations Treaty Series on September 4, 1928.”

      But, the ratification of this treaty by the United States is worth the same as everything else that eminates from the Hallowed Mount called Washington, D.C….nothing.

      “History” will also teach you that the European Jews who emigrated to Palestine in the late 1940’s are not real Jews since they have no blood ties to the Jews of the Old Testament, an immutable and irrefutable historical fact.

      “History” will teach you that these Khazarian Jews plundered the land of the Palestinians in the late 1940’s and butchered those who refused to capitulate to their terrorism…all with the blessing of the United Nations, of course.

      So…if you choose to be complicit in the continued bastardization of the still-binding 1928 Kellogg-Briand Pact…and to do the bidding of fake Jews living on stolen lands…and because your pastor continues to falsely preach that they are still “God’s chosen people”…by all means, take your children and grandchildren down to the closet U.S. Military recruiting offices and get-‘er-done!

      As for me and mine, we will continue to abide by Major General Smedley Butler’s timeless wisdom…

      “War is just a racket. A racket is best described, I believe, as something that is not what it seems to the majority of people. Only a small inside group knows what it is about. It is conducted for the benefit of the very few at the expense of the masses.

      I believe in adequate defense at the coastline and nothing else. If a nation comes over here to fight, then we’ll fight. The trouble with America is that when the dollar only earns 6 percent over here, then it gets restless and goes overseas to get 100 percent. Then the flag follows the dollar and the soldiers follow the flag.

      I wouldn’t go to war again as I have done to protect some lousy investment of the bankers. There are only two things we should fight for. One is the defense of our homes and the other is the Bill of Rights. War for any other reason is simply a racket.

      And war is the most profitable racket in the world!”

      1. Nothing New Here Brubaker. 🙂 Just more of the far left from RP. Oh, since I like to read you, and your solution is? Oh, by the way I will predate you a bit by saying I consider most law written by our US Congress since 1913 has been unconsitutional. (Note: I said most Law). By the way based on how Obama runs things right now there is no such thing as International binding agreements or pacts and even George Bush (both) stomped on agreements and or pacts also! With a Clinton here and a Clinton their, my don’t we have a mess, and oh yes don’t for get a Jimmy thrown in there also. This does none of us any good. Solutions Brubaker, solutions.

  3. Our hypnotized, technology-enthralled, sports fanatic, apathetic fellow plantation workers won’t like the answer, Jack. Mainly because they have become quite accustomed and way too comfortable with bowing before the “Mastah” in whatever form he presents himself on the Federal level primarily…and to a lesser degree on the state and local levels.

    It is the nightmare realization of the Stockholm Syndrome in which the naive and apathetic majority in Amerika relate to their captors and fight to protect those who use and abuse them to the point of the approaching total collapse of our social, economic, and political institutions.

    The infamous “Powers That Be” control our public educational systems; they control the Mainstream Media (MSM); they control our financial institutions; they control and freely manipulate the voting apparatus; and they jealously guard the political, military, civilian law enforcement, and judicial apparatus by which they maintain their absolute oligarchy.

    The primary threat to the entrenched elitists who rule over us is the internet, the medium we are currently utilizing to criticize them and treasonously state that “the emperor is naked”. They desperately seek to control even this last bastion of political expression by means of fascist legislation innocently titled “PIPA” and “SOPA”…currently down, but not out (never count the treasonous b*st*rds out!)

    The overview above is what we are up against. Before we venture into “solutions”…what won’t work?

    1. Voting
    2. Peaceful protest

    We’ve been playing the voting game for almost 100 years since your date of “1913”. Since then, the dollar has lost 95+% of its value and we’re collectively and figuratively swirling around the toilet bowl and about to experience previously unexplored territory for Amerikans known as “3rd world living conditions” under the iron fist of a tin-pot dicatatorship.

    The “Occupy Wall Street” movement was a move in the right direction…but, the well-fortified elitists effectively neutered them by means of their owned MSM…the same strategy they have effectively employed against our last great hope, Ron Paul…definitely not part of the establishment nor a member-in-good-standing of “The Good Old Boys Club”.

    There is but ONE solution…

  4. …the overriding solution is very unpleasant and uncomfortable …the absolute return to the Rule of the Law of the Land.

    First and foremost in that regard is the reinstitution of the original “The Constitution for the united states of America”…rather than the later “”THE CONSTITUTION OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA”. There is a difference…see…

    This return to the rule of the law of the land and the original tenets of the Constitution is nothing new and many have previously called for it.

    What the masses don’t grasp is what it will take to achieve this almost-impossible task. If they are waiting for the U.S. Justice Department to suddenly wake up and decide to become an impartial arbiter of blind justice rather than the political hack machine for whichever co-opted political party is in office at the time, they will certainly die in bondage..of which they are probably oblivious anyway.

    Rumors circulate of beneficial foreign financial powers bankrupting the U.S. Federal corporation in D.C. in ways that would make Sun Tzu proud. If true, the results can be seen very clearly as the ongoing slow-motion death dive of the biggest economic mafia on earth…the U.S. corporation. The success of this effort would be painful in the short term, but would provide a window of opportunity to rebuild, regroup, and reinstitute the long lost Republic given to us by our Forefathers.

    The U.S. corporation has discarded all pretenses of civility and diplomacy as evidenced by the draconian Patriot Act, the recently-passed NDAA (National Defense Authorization Act), the proposed Enemy Expatriation Act, and the proposed PIPA and SOPA laws to control the internet.

    They have slapped Amerikans in the face and told you that you are not free and you will do as you are told, when you are told, and how you are told.

    The TSA has set up checkpoints on interstates in several states and conducted unconstitutional searches in arrogant violation of the 4th Amendment…and dared you to question your betters.

    What is the final solution? Hear it not from me…but, from the first President of the united states…

    “The time is now near at hand which must probably determine, whether Americans are to be, Freemen, or Slaves; whether they are to have any property they can call their own; whether their Houses, and Farms, are to be pillaged and destroyed, and they consigned to a State of Wretchedness from which no human efforts will probably deliver them. The fate of unborn Millions will now depend, under God, on the Courage and Conduct of this army – Our cruel and unrelenting Enemy leaves us no choice but a brave resistance, or the most abject submission; that is all we can expect – We have therefore to resolve to conquer or die.”

    — George Washington to his troops before the Battle of Long Island.

    1. So Brubaker what your saying in a shortened version is fight or submit, that is what is left … Okay, I understand your libetarian stance as recognizing we really only have two solutions. The positive thing I see here is that Libertarians by your quote of Washington will not accept submission, so we must conquer or die! I like it. We do have some common points, though I doubt if our way of solving the problems will be via the same path.

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