Here’s what everyone thinks about this year. If Romney sweeps Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina he wins. It is conventional wisdom and conventional wisdom is usually right.
But this year there is an anomaly. The first several rounds of primaries and caucuses are not winner take all, but proportional. In fact, as you can see from the chart below the fold, there is still a long way to go.
That is one reason Perry stayed in after finishing fifth in Iowa and expecting to finish at the bottom in New Hampshire. Not only does South Carolina not care about Iowa and New Hampshire, but they are not really relevant to South Carolina, the first Republican primary in a consistently Republican state.
But the Perry camp knows what go them to this point isn’t working.
I’m being told reliably the campaign has gotten the message and has reset its South Carolina operation. Gone are the flashy national ads with the national ad buyer and the national staging. It is very South Carolina focused, hoping to build upward momentum.
That campaign is relying less on national consultants and more on instate players. The campaign ads are focused on local market buys and local market newsmakers. The message is a more tailored message and less erratic than what we saw in Iowa — more about small government and sticking up for South Carolina’s conservative fighters in Congress.
If it works, we should see some uptick in polling. The Perry camp made a wise choice to rely more heavily on South Carolina operatives than national consultants. It could be a model moving forward if it works.
In the mean time, the Perry campaign took all of our concerns under advisement and intends to show it can reset, retool, and reboot to victory in South Carolina.
|Iowa caucus||28||1.20%||Jan 3, 2012||–||1.20%|
|NH Primary||12||0.50%||Jan 10, 2012||past||1.80%|
|SC Primary||25||1.10%||Jan 21, 2012||past||2.90%|
|FL Primary||50||2.20%||Jan 31, 2012||past||5.10%|
|NV Caucus||28||1.20%||Feb 4, 2012||–||6.30%|
|CO Caucus||36||1.60%||Feb 7, 2012||–||9.00%|
|MN Caucus||40||1.80%||Feb 7, 2012||–||10.70%|
|AZ Primary||29||1.30%||Feb 28, 2012||Jan 9, 2012||12.00%|
|MI Primary||30||1.30%||Feb 28, 2012||past||13.30%|
|WA Caucus||43||1.90%||Mar 3, 2012||–||15.20%|
|AK Caucus||27||1.20%||Mar 6, 2012||–||16.40%|
|GA Primary||76||3.40%||Mar 6, 2012||past||19.80%|
|ID Caucus||32||1.40%||Mar 6, 2012||–||21.20%|
|MA Primary||41||1.80%||Mar 6, 2012||past||23.00%|
|ND Caucus||28||1.20%||Mar 6, 2012||–||24.20%|
|OK Primary||43||1.90%||Mar 6, 2012||past||26.10%|
|TN Primary||58||2.60%||Mar 6, 2012||past||28.70%|
|TX Primary||155||6.80%||Mar 6, 2012||past||35.60%|
|VE Primary||17||0.80%||Mar 6, 2012||Jan 9, 2012||36.30%|
|VA Primary||49||2.20%||Mar 6, 2012||past||38.50%|
|Vir Islands Caucus||9||0.40%||Mar 6, 2012||–||38.90%|
|WY Caucus||29||1.30%||Mar 6, 2012||–||40.20%|
|KS Caucus||40||1.80%||Mar 10, 2012||–||41.90%|
|AL Primary||50||2.20%||Mar 13, 2012||Jan 13, 2012||44.10%|
|Haw Caucus||20||0.90%||Mar 13, 2012||–||45.00%|
|MS Primary||38||1.70%||Mar 13, 2012||Jan 14, 2012||46.70%|
|Am Samoa Caucus||9||0.40%||Mar 13, 2012||–||47.10%|
|Missouri Caucus||52||2.30%||Mar 17, 2012||–||49.40%|
|Puerto Rico Caucus||23||1.00%||Mar 18, 2012||–||50.40%|
|IL Primary||69||3.00%||Mar 20, 2012||past||53.40%|
|LA Primary||45||2.00%||Mar 24, 2012||past||55.40%|
|DC Primary||19||0.80%||Apr 3, 2012||past||56.30%|
|MD Primary||37||1.60%||Apr 3, 2012||Jan 11, 2012||57.90%|
|WI Primary||42||1.90%||Apr 3, 2012||Jan 11, 2012||59.80%|
|Conn Primary||28||1.20%||Apr 24, 2012||Mar 2, 2012||61.00%|
|DE Primary||17||0.80%||Apr 24, 2012||Feb 24, 2012||61.70%|
|NY Primary||95||4.20%||Apr 24, 2012||Feb 9, 2012||65.90%|
|PA Primary||72||3.20%||Apr 24, 2012||Feb 14, 2012||69.10%|
|RI Primary||19||0.80%||Apr 24, 2012||Jan 21, 2012||70.00%|
|IN Primary||46||2.00%||May 8, 2012||Feb 10, 2012||72.00%|
|NC Primary||55||2.40%||May 8, 2012||Feb 29, 2012||74.40%|
|WV Primary||31||1.40%||May 8, 2012||Jan 28, 2012||75.80%|
|NE Primary||34||1.50%||May 15, 2012||Mar 7, 2012||77.30%|
|OR Primary||28||1.20%||May 15, 2012||Mar 6, 2012||78.50%|
|Ark Primary||36||1.60%||May 22, 2012||Mar 1, 2012||80.10%|
|KY Primary||45||2.00%||May 22, 2012||Jan 31, 2012||82.10%|
|CA Primary||172||7.60%||Jun 5, 2012||Mar 23, 2012||89.70%|
|MT Primary||26||1.10%||Jun 5, 2012||Mar 12, 2012||90.90%|
|NJ Primary||50||2.20%||Jun 5, 2012||Apr 2, 2012||93.10%|
|NM Primary||23||1.00%||Jun 5, 2012||Mar 16, 2012||94.10%|
|SD Primary||28||1.20%||Jun 5, 2012||Mar 27, 2012||95.30%|
|OH Primary||66||2.90%||Jun 12, 2012||Mar 14, 2012||98.20%|
|UT Primary||40||1.80%||Jun 26, 2012||Mar 15, 2012||100.00%|